The potential distribution of Bacillus anthracis suitability across Uganda using INLA.

To reduce the veterinary, public health, environmental, and economic burden associated with anthrax outbreaks, it is vital to identify the spatial distribution of areas suitable for Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of the disease. Bayesian approaches have previously been applied to estimate uncertainty around detected areas of B. anthracis suitability. However, conventional simulation-based techniques are often computationally demanding. To solve this computational problem, we use Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) which can adjust for spatially structured random effects, to predict the suitability of B. anthracis across Uganda. We apply a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) within the INLA Bayesian framework to quantify the relationships between B. anthracis occurrence and the environment. We consolidate a national database of wildlife, livestock, and human anthrax case records across Uganda built across multiple sectors bridging human and animal partners using a One Health approach. The INLA framework successfully identified known areas of species suitability in Uganda, as well as suggested unknown hotspots across Northern, Eastern, and Central Uganda, which have not been previously identified by other niche models. The major risk factors for B. anthracis suitability were proximity to water bodies (0-0.3 km), increasing soil calcium (between 10 and 25 cmolc/kg), and elevation of 140-190 m. The sensitivity of the final model against the withheld evaluation dataset was 90% (181 out of 202 = 89.6%; rounded up to 90%). The prediction maps generated using this model can guide future anthrax prevention and surveillance plans by the relevant stakeholders in Uganda.

Dynamics and risk of transmission of bovine tuberculosis in the emerging dairy regions of Ethiopia.

The Ethiopian government has several initiatives to expand and intensify the dairy industry; however, the risk of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) spread is a challenge. To assess the rate of expansion and risk factors for transmission of bTB within-herds, we carried out a repeated cross-sectional survey at two time points, 2016/17 and 2018, in three regional cities, namely, Gondar, Hawassa and Mekelle, representing the emerging dairy belts of Ethiopia. The total number of herds involved was 128, comprising an average of 2303 cattle in each round. The Single Intradermal Comparative Cervical Tuberculin (SICCT) test was used to identify reactor status and data on herd-level risk factors were collected using a structured questionnaire. In the first survey, the apparent prevalence of bTB, as measured by the SICCT test, was 4.5% (95% CI 3.7-5.4%) at the individual animal-level and 24% (95% CI 17.5-32%) at the herd-level. There was no statistically significant change in the overall apparent prevalence or regional distribution at the second survey, consistent with the infection being endemic. The incidence rate was estimated at 3.6 (95% CI 2.8-4.5) and 6.6 (95% CI 3.0-12.6) cases/100 cattle (or herd)-years at the animal- and herd-levels, respectively. Risk factors significantly associated with the within-herd transmission of bTB were age group and within-herd apparent prevalence at the start of the observation period. We noted that farmers voluntarily took steps to remove reactor cattle from their herds as a consequence of the information shared after the first survey. Removal of reactors between surveys was associated with a reduced risk of transmission within these herds. However, with no regulatory barriers to the sale of reactor animals, such actions could potentially lead to further spread between herds. We therefore advocate the importance of setting up regulations and then establishing a systematic bTB surveillance programme to monitor the impact prior to implementing any control measures in Ethiopia.

Long-term follow-up of owned, free-roaming dogs in South Africa naturally exposed to Babesia rossi.

Babesia rossi is an important, tick-borne intraerythrocytic protozoan parasite; however, its natural history and epidemiology is poorly understood. Babesia rossi is the most virulent Babesia sp. in domestic dogs and is generally considered to cause severe babesiosis, which is fatal if left untreated. However, subclinical infections and mild disease from B. rossi have been reported, although the clinical progression of these cases was not reported. Therefore, to better understand B. rossi under field conditions, we evaluated its clinical progression and seroprevalence in an owned, free-roaming dog population in Zenzele, South Africa, where the parasite is endemic and prevention is not routine. The entire dog population in Zenzele was monitored intensively at the individual level from March 2008 until April 2014, primarily for a longitudinal study on rabies control. Subsequent evaluation of B. rossi comprised analyses of clinical and laboratory data collected from the Zenzele dog population during the 6 year study period. A substantial proportion (31% (n = 34)) of 109 dogs (randomly selected from every available dog in February/March 2010 older than ~6-8 weeks (n = 246)) tested by Indirect Fluorescent Antibody Test had seroconverted strongly to B. rossi. All 34 dogs were generally consistently healthy adults, determined from regular clinical examinations between March 2008 and April 2014. Blood smear examinations at multiple time points between July 2009 and February 2011 were also undertaken for almost all of these (34) seropositive dogs and all those tested were consistently negative for Babesia spp. Subclinical infections and mild disease were also the main findings for a separate group of 18 dogs positive for Babesia spp. on blood smear examination and confirmed to be infected with B. rossi by Polymerase Chain Reaction - Reverse Line Blot. Almost all of these dogs were positive at only one time point from repeat blood smear examinations between July 2009 and February 2011. We suggest that these observations are consistent with immunity acquired from repeated, low-level exposure to the parasite, generating transient subclinical infections or mild disease. Should this be the case, the use of tick control, particularly in adult dogs in free-roaming populations in B. rossi endemic regions, should be carefully considered.

Integrative modelling for One Health: pattern, process and participation.

This paper argues for an integrative modelling approach for understanding zoonoses disease dynamics, combining process, pattern and participatory models. Each type of modelling provides important insights, but all are limited. Combining these in a '3P' approach offers the opportunity for a productive conversation between modelling efforts, contributing to a 'One Health' agenda. The aim is not to come up with a composite model, but seek synergies between perspectives, encouraging cross-disciplinary interactions. We illustrate our argument with cases from Africa, and in particular from our work on Ebola virus and Lassa fever virus. Combining process-based compartmental models with macroecological data offers a spatial perspective on potential disease impacts. However, without insights from the ground, the 'black box' of transmission dynamics, so crucial to model assumptions, may not be fully understood. We show how participatory modelling and ethnographic research of Ebola and Lassa fever can reveal social roles, unsafe practices, mobility and movement and temporal changes in livelihoods. Together with longer-term dynamics of change in societies and ecologies, all can be important in explaining disease transmission, and provide important complementary insights to other modelling efforts. An integrative modelling approach therefore can offer help to improve disease control efforts and public health responses.This article is part of the themed issue 'One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being'.

Specificity of the comparative skin test for bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain.

A novel method for estimating specificity of the Single Intradermal Comparative Cervical Tuberculin (SICCT) test for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) using surveillance tests results is reported. The specificity of the SICCT test at three cut-offs was estimated from the dates, locations and skinfold measurements of all routine tests carried out in Officially TB Free (OTF) cattle herds in Great Britain (GB) between 2002 and 2008, according to their separation (by distance and time) from known infected (OTF-withdrawn) herds. The proportion of animals that tested positive was constant (P>0.20) when the distance between tested herds and nearest infected herd exceeded 8 km. For standard cut-off, calculated specificity was 99.98 per cent (95 per cent confidence interval ±0.004 per cent), equating to one false positive result per 5000 uninfected animals tested. For severe cut-off it was 99.91 per cent (±0.013 per cent) and for ultrasevere cut-off (selecting all reactors and inconclusive reactors) it was 99.87 per cent (±0.017 per cent). The estimated positive predictive value of the test averaged 91 per cent and varied by regional prevalence. This study provides further evidence of the high specificity of the SICCT test under GB conditions, suggests that over 90 per cent of cattle currently culled using this test in GB were infected, and endorses slaughter of at least these cattle for bTB control.

Effective vaccination against rabies in puppies in rabies endemic regions.

In rabies endemic regions, a proportionally higher incidence of rabies is often reported in dogs younger than 12 months of age, which includes puppies less than 3 months of age; this presents a serious risk to public health. The higher incidence of rabies in young dogs may be the effect of low vaccination coverage in this age class, partly as a result of the perception that immature immune systems and maternal antibodies inhibit seroconversion to rabies vaccine in puppies less than three months of age. Therefore, to test this perception, the authors report the virus neutralising antibody titres from 27 dogs that were vaccinated with high quality, inactivated rabies vaccine aged three months of age and under as part of larger serological studies undertaken in Gauteng Province, South Africa, and the Serengeti District, Tanzania. All of these dogs seroconverted to a single dose of vaccine with no adverse reactions reported and with postvaccinal peak titres ranging from 2.0 IU/ml to 90.5 IU/ml. In light of these results, and the risk of human beings contracting rabies from close contact with puppies, the authors recommend that all dogs in rabies endemic regions, including those less than three months of age, are vaccinated with high quality, inactivated vaccine.

Eight challenges in modelling infectious livestock diseases.

The transmission of infectious diseases of livestock does not differ in principle from disease transmission in any other animals, apart from that the aim of control is ultimately economic, with the influence of social, political and welfare constraints often poorly defined. Modelling of livestock diseases suffers simultaneously from a wealth and a lack of data. On the one hand, the ability to conduct transmission experiments, detailed within-host studies and track individual animals between geocoded locations make livestock diseases a particularly rich potential source of realistic data for illuminating biological mechanisms of transmission and conducting explicit analyses of contact networks. On the other hand, scarcity of funding, as compared to human diseases, often results in incomplete and partial data for many livestock diseases and regions of the world. In this overview of challenges in livestock disease modelling, we highlight eight areas unique to livestock that, if addressed, would mark major progress in the area.

Participatory methods for the assessment of the ownership status of free-roaming dogs in Bali, Indonesia, for disease control and animal welfare.

The existence of unowned, free-roaming dogs capable of maintaining adequate body condition without direct human oversight has serious implications for disease control and animal welfare, including reducing effective vaccination coverage against rabies through limiting access for vaccination, and absolving humans from the responsibility of providing adequate care for a domesticated species. Mark-recapture methods previously used to estimate the fraction of unowned dogs in free-roaming populations have limitations, particularly when most of the dogs are owned. We used participatory methods, described as Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA), as a novel alternative to mark-recapture methods in two villages in Bali, Indonesia. PRA was implemented at the banjar (or sub-village)-level to obtain consensus on the food sources of the free-roaming dogs. Specific methods included semi-structured discussion, visualisation tools and ranking. The PRA results agreed with the preceding household surveys and direct observations, designed to evaluate the same variables, and confirmed that a population of unowned, free-roaming dogs in sufficiently good condition to be sustained independently of direct human support was unlikely to exist.

The effect of seasonal birth pulses on pathogen persistence in wild mammal populations.

The notion of a critical community size (CCS), or population size that is likely to result in long-term persistence of a communicable disease, has been developed based on the empirical observations of acute immunizing infections in human populations, and extended for use in wildlife populations. Seasonal birth pulses are frequently observed in wildlife and are expected to impact infection dynamics, yet their effect on pathogen persistence and CCS have not been considered. To investigate this issue theoretically, we use stochastic epidemiological models to ask how host life-history traits and infection parameters interact to determine pathogen persistence within a closed population. We fit seasonal birth pulse models to data from diverse mammalian species in order to identify realistic parameter ranges. When varying the synchrony of the birth pulse with all other parameters being constant, our model predicted that the CCS can vary by more than two orders of magnitude. Tighter birth pulses tended to drive pathogen extinction by creating large amplitude oscillations in prevalence, especially with high demographic turnover and short infectious periods. Parameters affecting the relative timing of the epidemic and birth pulse peaks determined the intensity and direction of the effect of pre-existing immunity in the population on the pathogen's ability to persist beyond the initial epidemic following its introduction.

Antigenic variation of foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype A.

The current measures to control foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) include vaccination, movement control and slaughter of infected or susceptible animals. One of the difficulties in controlling FMD by vaccination arises due to the substantial diversity found among the seven serotypes of FMD virus (FMDV) and the strains within these serotypes. Therefore, vaccination using a single vaccine strain may not fully cross-protect against all strains within that serotype, and therefore selection of appropriate vaccines requires serological comparison of the field virus and potential vaccine viruses using relationship coefficients (r1 values). Limitations of this approach are that antigenic relationships among field viruses are not addressed, as comparisons are only with potential vaccine virus. Furthermore, inherent variation among vaccine sera may impair reproducibility of one-way relationship scores. Here, we used antigenic cartography to quantify and visualize the antigenic relationships among FMD serotype A viruses, aiming to improve the understanding of FMDV antigenic evolution and the scope and reliability of vaccine matching. Our results suggest that predicting antigenic difference using genetic sequence alone or by geographical location is not currently reliable. We found co-circulating lineages in one region that were genetically similar but antigenically distinct. Nevertheless, by comparing antigenic distances measured from the antigenic maps with the full capsid (P1) sequence, we identified a specific amino acid substitution associated with an antigenic mismatch among field viruses and a commonly used prototype vaccine strain, A22/IRQ/24/64.

Infectious risk factors and clinical indicators for tracheal mucus in British National Hunt racehorses.

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: Many studies of respiratory disease in racehorses have focused on a combination of increased tracheal mucus and airway neutrophilia. Examination of each component separately should provide further insight into this condition. OBJECTIVES: To identify infectious risk factors for endoscopically visible tracheal mucus in National Hunt racehorses. STUDY DESIGN: A 2 year prospective longitudinal study. METHODS: Monthly quantitative bacteriological examinations of tracheal wash samples and viral serological examinations were conducted. Risk factors for 'small amounts of mucus' (mucus score = 1/3) and 'increased mucus' (score ≥2/3) were identified. RESULTS: There were increased odds of small amounts of mucus when both Streptococcus zooepidemicus and nonhaemolytic streptococci (NHS) were isolated (odds ratio [OR] 2.6; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.5-4.6; P<0.001) but not when either species was isolated in the absence of the other. Increased odds of increased mucus were associated with the isolation of either S. zooepidemicus (OR 5.6; 95% CI 1.2-25.9; P = 0.03) or NHS (OR 3.7; 95% CI 1.2-11.6; P = 0.02), with an increased effect when both were isolated together (OR 12.5; 95% CI 3.7-41.6; P<0.001). Approximately 6-fold increased odds of small amounts of mucus were associated with the first 3 months in training (OR 6.3; 95% CI 2.0-19.4; P<0.001) and 3-fold increased odds of increased mucus associated with the first 6 months in training (OR 2.9; 95% CI 1.3-6.4; P = 0.01). Coughing at exercise and increased serous nasal discharge were specific but insensitive indicators of increased mucus. CONCLUSIONS: Associations with S. zooepidemicus corroborate previous research, but an independent effect of NHS has not previously been reported. The possibility that there are individual pathogenic species within this group should be considered. Further work is required to identify S. zooepidemicus subtypes and NHS species associated with disease. Closer monitoring of the respiratory health of horses entering training for the first time is likely to be valuable.

Deciphering serology to understand the ecology of infectious diseases in wildlife.

The ecology of infectious disease in wildlife has become a pivotal theme in animal and public health. Studies of infectious disease ecology rely on robust surveillance of pathogens in reservoir hosts, often based on serology, which is the detection of specific antibodies in the blood and is used to infer infection history. However, serological data can be inaccurate for inference to infection history for a variety of reasons. Two major aspects in any serological test can substantially impact results and interpretation of antibody prevalence data: cross-reactivity and cut-off thresholds used to discriminate positive and negative reactions. Given the ubiquitous use of serology as a tool for surveillance and epidemiological modeling of wildlife diseases, it is imperative to consider the strengths and limitations of serological test methodologies and interpretation of results, particularly when using data that may affect management and policy for the prevention and control of infectious diseases in wildlife. Greater consideration of population age structure and cohort representation, serological test suitability and standardized sample collection protocols can ensure that reliable data are obtained for downstream modeling applications to characterize, and evaluate interventions for, wildlife disease systems.

What can mathematical models bring to the control of equine influenza?

Mathematical modelling of infectious disease is increasingly regarded as an important tool in the development of disease prevention and control measures. This article brings together key findings from various modelling studies conducted over the past 10 years that are of relevance to those on the front line of the battle against equine influenza.

The evolutionary dynamics of influenza A virus adaptation to mammalian hosts.

Few questions on infectious disease are more important than understanding how and why avian influenza A viruses successfully emerge in mammalian populations, yet little is known about the rate and nature of the virus' genetic adaptation in new hosts. Here, we measure, for the first time, the genomic rate of adaptive evolution of swine influenza viruses (SwIV) that originated in birds. By using a curated dataset of more than 24 000 human and swine influenza gene sequences, including 41 newly characterized genomes, we reconstructed the adaptive dynamics of three major SwIV lineages (Eurasian, EA; classical swine, CS; triple reassortant, TR). We found that, following the transfer of the EA lineage from birds to swine in the late 1970s, EA virus genes have undergone substantially faster adaptive evolution than those of the CS lineage, which had circulated among swine for decades. Further, the adaptation rates of the EA lineage antigenic haemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes were unexpectedly high and similar to those observed in human influenza A. We show that the successful establishment of avian influenza viruses in swine is associated with raised adaptive evolution across the entire genome for many years after zoonosis, reflecting the contribution of multiple mutations to the coordinated optimization of viral fitness in a new environment. This dynamics is replicated independently in the polymerase genes of the TR lineage, which established in swine following separate transmission from non-swine hosts.

The accuracy of the National Equine Database in relation to vector-borne disease risk modelling of horses in Great Britain.

REASONS FOR PERFORMING THE STUDY: The National Equine Database (NED) contains information on the size and distribution of the horse population, but the data quality remains unknown. These data could assist with surveillance, research and contingency planning for equine infectious disease outbreaks. OBJECTIVES: 1) To assess the extent of obsolete and missing data from NED, 2) evaluate the extent of spatial separation between horse and owner location and 3) identify relationships between spatial separation and land use. METHODS: Two questionnaires were used to assess data accuracy in NED utilising local authority passport inspections and distribution of questionnaires to 11,000 horse owners. A subset of 1010 questionnaires was used to assess horse-owner geographic separation. RESULTS: During 2005-2010, 17,048 passports were checked through local authority inspections. Of these, 1558 passports (9.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 8.7-9.5%) were noncompliant, with 963 (5.6%; 95% CI 5.3-6.0%) containing inaccurate information and 595 (3.5%; 95% CI 3.2-3.8%) classified as missing. Of 1382 questionnaires completed by horse owners, 380 passports were obsolete (27.5%; 95% CI 25.2-29.9%), with 162 (11.7%; 95% CI 10.0-13.4%) being retained for deceased horses and 218 (15.8%; 95% CI 13.9-17.7%) having incorrect ownership details. Fifty-three per cent (95% CI 49.9-56.1%) of owners kept their horse(s) at home and 92% (95% CI 90.3-93.7%) of horses resided within 10 km of their owners. CONCLUSIONS AND POTENTIAL RELEVANCE: Data from a small sample survey suggest the majority of data on NED are accurate but a proportion of inaccuracies exist that may cause delay in locating horses and contacting owners during a disease outbreak. The probability that horses are located in the same postcode sector as the owner's home address is larger in rural areas. Appropriate adjustment for population size, horse-owner spatial separation and land usage would facilitate meaningful use of the national horse population derived from NED for risk modelling of incursions of equine diseases into Great Britain.

Ecology of zoonotic infectious diseases in bats: current knowledge and future directions.

Bats are hosts to a range of zoonotic and potentially zoonotic pathogens. Human activities that increase exposure to bats will likely increase the opportunity for infections to spill over in the future. Ecological drivers of pathogen spillover and emergence in novel hosts, including humans, involve a complex mixture of processes, and understanding these complexities may aid in predicting spillover. In particular, only once the pathogen and host ecologies are known can the impacts of anthropogenic changes be fully appreciated. Cross-disciplinary approaches are required to understand how host and pathogen ecology interact. Bats differ from other sylvatic disease reservoirs because of their unique and diverse lifestyles, including their ability to fly, often highly gregarious social structures, long lifespans and low fecundity rates. We highlight how these traits may affect infection dynamics and how both host and pathogen traits may interact to affect infection dynamics. We identify key questions relating to the ecology of infectious diseases in bats and propose that a combination of field and laboratory studies are needed to create data-driven mechanistic models to elucidate those aspects of bat ecology that are most critical to the dynamics of emerging bat viruses. If commonalities can be found, then predicting the dynamics of newly emerging diseases may be possible. This modelling approach will be particularly important in scenarios when population surveillance data are unavailable and when it is unclear which aspects of host ecology are driving infection dynamics.

Estimating reassortment rates in co-circulating Eurasian swine influenza viruses.

Swine have often been considered as a mixing vessel for different influenza strains. In order to assess their role in more detail, we undertook a retrospective sequencing study to detect and characterize the reassortants present in European swine and to estimate the rate of reassortment between H1N1, H1N2 and H3N2 subtypes with Eurasian (avian-like) internal protein-coding segments. We analysed 69 newly obtained whole genome sequences of subtypes H1N1-H3N2 from swine influenza viruses sampled between 1982 and 2008, using Illumina and 454 platforms. Analyses of these genomes, together with previously published genomes, revealed a large monophyletic clade of Eurasian swine-lineage polymerase segments containing H1N1, H1N2 and H3N2 subtypes. We subsequently examined reassortments between the haemagglutinin and neuraminidase segments and estimated the reassortment rates between lineages using a recently developed evolutionary analysis method. High rates of reassortment between H1N2 and H1N1 Eurasian swine lineages were detected in European strains, with an average of one reassortment every 2-3 years. This rapid reassortment results from co-circulating lineages in swine, and in consequence we should expect further reassortments between currently circulating swine strains and the recent swine-origin H1N1v pandemic strain.

Descriptive clinical and epidemiological characteristics of influenza A H1N1 2009 virus infections in pigs in England.

Infection of pigs with influenza A H1N1 2009 virus (A(H1N1)pdm09) was first detected in England in November 2009 following global spread of the virus in the human population. This paper describes clinical and epidemiological findings in the first English pig farms in which A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza virus was detected. These farms showed differences in disease presentation, spread and duration of infection. The factors likely to influence these features are described and relate to whether pigs were housed or outdoors, the age of the pigs, inter-current disease and the management system of the unit. Infection could be mild or clinically inapparent in breeding pigs with more typical respiratory disease being identified later in their progeny. Mortality was low where disease was uncomplicated by environmental stresses or concurrent infections. Where deaths occurred in pigs infected with A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza, they were mainly due to other infections, including streptococcal disease due to Streptococcus suis infection. This paper demonstrates the ease with which A(H1N1)pdm09 virus was transmitted horizontally and maintained in a pig population.